What I'm Watching For: Preseason, Week 3: Saturday/Sunday

Saturday:
Tampa Bay @ Buffalo
Tennessee @ Atlanta
Dallas @ Miami
Washington @ Baltimore
St. Louis @ Cleveland
New Orleans @ Indianapolis
Minnesota @ Kansas City
Houston @ Denver
Sunday:
San Diego @ San Francisco
Cincinnati @ Arizona

1. Timeshare alert: Buffalo

Fred Jackson is a serious threat to C.J. Spiller's fantasy draft stock. (photo from the Score)

Last week, it was the Steelers; this week it is the Bills.

Of course, right after I drafted C.J. Spiller with the final pick in the third round of my first fantasy draft, it comes to my attention that--he's not getting very much playing time, nor is he getting a viable amount of first-teams reps. In Buffalo's most recent preseason game, Fred Jackson out-touched C.J. Spiller 13-6, and played on 26 first-team snaps to Spiller's 12. You might say, "Well, it's preseason; the Bills know what they've got in Spiller, and  they want to preserve him for your regular season." Sure, that's possible, but consider that Spiller didn't even get the start against Pittsburgh. That's a little more alarming. If the Bills are preserving Spiller, why play him at all if he is not going to start?

I will be watching Buffalo's dress-rehearsal matchup against Tampa Bay very closely. If Spiller gets drastically phased in favor of Jackson again, I will have to knock him down my draft board from the RB2 to the RB3 range, and I advise you to do the same.

It's a baffling situation considering Spiller is younger and more athletic than Jackson, but along with Doug Marrone's recent assertion that young backup Bryce Brown has the potential to start in the NFL, Spiller's apparent demotion could be further evidence that Buffalo intends to trade him. This is the same mistake Buffalo made by giving up on Marshawn Lynch in 2010, and it looks like history may repeat itself.

2. The Titans' tackle rotation

One of the most puzzling moments of free agency occurred when the Tennessee Titans took in Michael Oher from the Ravens, where the tackle of "Blind Side" fame had been on a downward spiral performance-wise since his rookie season. Not only did Tennessee sign Oher, they gifted him $9.5 million in guaranteed dough to man the right side of the offensive line, with stalwart Michael Roos on the left.

In the draft came the most inexplicable part. With the 12th pick of the 2014 NFL Draft, the Titans selected stud Michigan tackle Taylor Lewan. Why? In Tennessee's defense, Lewan was probably the best player available at that point in the draft, and, arguably, Tennessee did not have any major holes in their lineup (quarterback being a possible exception). So what this boils down to is either Oher or Lewan not playing--or, as briefly speculated after the draft, Michael Roos being traded. The Roos trade, at this point, seems unlikely, but the question at right tackle remains. Do you want a $9.5 million benchwarmer in Oher, or a first-round $11.5 million benchwarmer? I suppose Oher has the experience, but frankly, he has not played well in recent years; Lewan might simply be a safer option. Either way, the situation is befuddling. Lewan may get some looks at guard, and is definitely excellent insurance if anyone on the O-line gets hurt, but for now, the talented first-rounder is running with the twos.

3. Dallas' deteriorating defense

It all started when Jerry Jones inexplicably fired defensive coordinator Rob Ryan after the 2012 season. Ryan had inherited the 31st-ranked defense in the league, and led them back up to a rank of 17th. He got the only real production to date out of first-round cornerback Morris Claiborne, and made Sean Lee a star inside linebacker.

Let me just get this out of the way: Jerry Jones is an idiot. Once upon a time, he went on a serious winning streak when he drafted Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith, and Larry Allen; but ever since the Cowboys last won the Super Bowl in the 1995 season, Jones has done nothing but stand in the way of his team winning another title. The firing of Ryan is one of many terrible decisions executed during his reign of terror in the Big D.

Rob Ryan, as we know has since gone on to success as the defensive coordinator in New Orleans, bringing to the Big Easy a defensive presence it has not wielded since Sam Mills wore the fleur on his helmet. Meanwhile, under Monte Kiffin, Dallas' defense has reverted to its previous horrific form. Team leader and potential future hall-of-famer DeMarcus Ware was cut after an injury-riddled season. Morris Claiborne was barbecued in coverage as a sophomore, and a series of concussions prevented Sean Lee from making any kind of difference as the Cowboys embarrassed themselves all the way to last in the NFL in defense a season ago. And, in case you're wondering, no, Kiffin did not get fired. He was "demoted," and replaced by defensive line coach Rod Marinelli (of 0-16 Detroit Lions fame), but not fired--like Ryan was.

I could put a picture of the real Rob Ryan here--or I could use this photo of a hilariously accurate lookalike at a Saints game.

The offseason for Dallas has been a terrifying parade of injuries to the defense, beginning with Sean Lee, who tore his ACL during a non-contact drill early in OTA's when rookie guard Zack Martin plowed into him. Then second-round rookie edge rusher DeMarcus Lawrence broke his foot going one-on-one with Tyron Smith in practice. Outside 'backer Anthony Spencer is currently on the PUP list. Defensive tackle Henry Melton, who tore his ACL in 2013, avoided PUP, but is now missing time with a groin injury. Orlando Scandrick, the only solid performer in the the defensive backfield, will miss the first four weeks of the 2014 season because of a PED suspension (stemming from the usage of "molly," which is not a PED in any sense, but still an illicit drug). To top it all off, Lee's potential replacement, DeVonte Holloman, injured his neck in preseason, ending his career--also a result of friendly fire.

It's a shame, and a damn bad run of misfortune and mismanagement, but at this point, Dallas' defense is an wide open gate for offenses to pass (and run) through at will.

4. Pass Distribution in Indy

As T.Y. Hilton recently encapsulated with his "three No. 1 wideouts" comment, Indy's receiving corps is absolutely loaded. Reggie Wayne, Hilton, Hakeem Nicks, a healthy Dwayne Allen, Coby Fleener--can these guys be stopped with Andrew Luck throwing them the ball? As the starters are likely to play well into the third quarter in the third preseason game, tonight should give us some sort of indication as to who will emerge from Indy's passing game as Luck's favorite target. My initial guess is Wayne--he is the most proven of the bunch with plenty of physical ability left in his tank. He is, however, recovering from a torn ACL, which could easily devalue the legendary receiver in both fantasy football and real life. If this is the case, Hilton is the clear-cut No. 1. In Wayne's absence, Hilton enjoyed a breakout year in which he posted 1,083 receiving yards, five touchdowns, and a fabulous playoff performance against the Chiefs. Add to the mix disgraced New York exile Hakeem Nicks, who is sure to rebound with a better ball club (than the Giants), and Hilton's claims aren't at all misguided or even exaggerated.

I also like Dwayne Allen to make a triumphant return to the Indy offense. He was one of Luck's favorite targets in 2012, but missed last season with a torn ACL. He is a superior receiving option to Coby Fleener (who isn't bad himself), and is sure to get his due share of targets.

5. The continuing story of Kansas City's bumbling offensive line

If you're expecting a big season from Jamaal Charles, beware: KC's O-line is looking shabby. (photo: Don McPeak, USA Today)

Did you see Eric Fisher in that game against Carolina a week ago?!

Neither did I. I think he forgot to get off the team bus. He might as well have, because Carolina's Greg Hardy strolled right past him time after time as if the former first-overall pick was not even there. Fisher is the most high-profile disappointment on Kansas City's offensive line due to his draft pedigree, but he is certainly not alone. Just yesterday, left tackle Donald Stephenson was busted for PED's and received a four-game ban--not like he was doing all that great on the blind side anyway. A Similar fate awaits guard Rokevious Watkins--when he returns from the PUP list. Center Rodney Hudson has looked good to me (in my admittedly limited viewing of Kansas City's offensive line), but has aroused concern during the offseason, leading to split reps with Jeff Allen.

Kansas City's offensive line might just be bad enough to warrant moving LeSean McCoy ahead of Jamaal Charles on your draft board. Charles will probably still have a good fantasy season, but more importantly, the Chiefs' shaky O-line could cost them dearly in the real world.